What to Expect from 2025 Fleet Industry Trends

What a year 2024 has been! At the start of the year, we talked about how changes in politics might impact the fleet industry. But as always, the year had its fair share of surprises. Well, we are already seeing many ‘experts’ giving their projections for the year 2025.

Now, without further ado, let’s take a brief detour to the year 2024 before discussing the trends in 2025. Which predictions came true, which didn’t, and what can we learn from it all? Let’s get into it!

Looking Back at 2024

This year had three big themes: economic challenges, global conflicts, and stricter emissions rules. Let’s see how things actually turned out.

Economic Changes

2024 was full of financial ups and downs. Inflation finally started to ease as central banks lowered interest rates, with the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting rates twice this year. Interest rates dropped from 5.3% to about 4.5–4.75%, helping the economy avoid a full-blown recession. However, the cost of living and doing business stayed high, making things tough for many people.

We also expected the government to spend less, which could have hurt government fleets. Expenditure increased as did inflation and the incompetence of the administration led to the national debt rising to more than $35 trillion. Such debt as stated by experts could hinder future spending on critical sectors such as infrastructure and growth.

Impact of Global Conflicts

Global conflicts made a big impact in 2024. The U.S. sent billions of dollars to support Ukraine and Israel, which added pressure to inflation. On the same note, instabilities distorted major supply chain gateways in the Middle East, which threatened fleets and company operations.

Stricter Emissions Rules

In 2024, new emissions regulations went into effect, with stricter targets for vehicles starting in 2027. The EPA introduced new rules to cut emissions for both light- and heavy-duty vehicles. These changes aim to reduce pollution but mean fleets will need to adapt to new standards in the coming years.

What to Expect in 2025

And now let’s look at some big changes that may impact the fleet industry in 2025, as we enter this year. We’ll talk about what these changes might mean for businesses and share simple ways to prepare for them.

Here’s a quick look at the main topics:

Possible Labor Strikes

Last year, many workers went on strike to demand better pay and address concerns about new technologies. With the International Longshoremen’s Association strike delayed until this year, we’ll discuss how more strikes could affect supply chains and what fleets can do to get ready.

Growth in Automation

Automation has been a big deal for years, but 2025 might be the year it really takes off. From more efficient operations to self-driving transport vehicles, these four aspects will focus on how a fleet may be affected by automation and how to remain relevant.

A New President in Office

With Donald Trump returning to the White House, we can expect some big policy changes. We’ll talk about what these changes might mean for the fleet industry and how businesses can prepare for what’s ahead.

1. Potential Impacts of the International Longshoremen’s Association Strike

Over the past few years, worker strikes have become a recurring theme and shaking up industries from entertainment to auto manufacturing. The United Auto Workers (UAW) strike, for instance, caused vehicle shortages at dealerships, slowed down the fleet vehicle supply chain, and increased wait times for vehicle acquisitions.

In October, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) joined the list of striking unions, staging a three-day strike that made headlines. Despite its short duration, the strike caused noticeable disruptions. According to Everstream Analytics, “At least 54 container ships had lined up outside the ports as the strike prevented unloading, threatening shortages of anything from bananas to auto parts,” as reported by Reuters.

The problem of wages was solved temporarily, and the strike is scheduled for January 15, 2025, while the questions of health benefits, and port automation remain open. If negotiations fail and the strike resumes, it could lead to significant economic consequences, depending on its length.

Meanwhile, the UAW has hinted at an even bigger strike in 2028, aiming for a general strike involving multiple unions when their current contracts with the "Big Three" automakers expire.

Therefore, what is the chance of the ILA strike coming back this year? While the possibility exists, some believe the chances might not be as high as expected. Last November, ILA President Harold Daggett had a meeting with Donald Trump to discuss the union’s concerns. Reflecting on this in a memo published in July, Daggett shared:

“We had a wonderful, productive 90-minute meeting where I expressed to President Trump the threat of automation to American workers. [...] President Trump promised to support the ILA in its opposition to automated terminals in the U.S. Mr. Trump also listened to my concerns about Federal ‘Right To Work’ laws which undermines unions and their ability to represent and fight for its membership.”

2. Automation in 2025

Automation is set to grow significantly in 2025, both in managing fleets and on the road. Fleet managers have been using tools like management software and optimization platforms to automate their processes. While these tools don’t cover everything, many managers have found creative ways to automate tasks that aren’t directly supported by their systems, showing a strong interest in more automation. With improvements in automating work orders, inventory resupply, and reports, fleets can save time and ensure important tasks are handled more efficiently.

When we talk about automation, we also have to mention autonomous vehicles (AVs). Despite issues such as safety, investment, and scalability, 2024 has marked some encouraging steps on the path toward change that might transform the industry in 2025. For instance, in October Gatik AI Inc., a company focused on middle-mile autonomy, released that it had immediately started developing a safety report for its Freight Only solutions across North America—meaning deliveries without a human driver on board.

Here’s what Gatik said:

“The scope of a comprehensive safety case assessment for its Freight-Only operations (deliveries without a human driver onboard) across North America. With this announcement, Gatik is committed to launching Freight-Only operations at scale once it satisfies the most rigorous evaluation ever performed on its autonomous driving system by independent third parties.”

They added, “The safety assessment will encompass over 700 identified safety portfolios [that] must be completed and closed before [it] can achieve Freight-Only operations at scale.”

On the investment side, things are also moving fast. S&P Global reported:

“In the summer of 2024, Waymo's parent Alphabet said it would invest up to US $5 billion into the startup, which also unveiled the sixth generation of its Waymo Driver autonomous driving system. Waymo operates a fleet of nearly 800 self-driving vehicles in California and more in Phoenix [...] and it is the only one collecting fares today, though GM's Cruise fleet is also expected to do so again sooner rather than later.”

3. U.S. Under New Leadership

A change in the U.S. administration can bring a range of effects to the fleet industry, depending on the policies implemented.

Adjusted Sustainability Policies

According to Brookings’ count in 2020, the Trump administration undertook 74 measures to reduce or eliminate environmentalism, although it loosely defined it and simply singled out climate change. According to Holland & Knight, Trump is expected to expand those actions and “reverse the Biden Administration's light-duty vehicle emissions standards.” His own Agenda 47 outlines plans to revive the U.S. auto industry by “reversing harmful regulations [and] canceling Biden’s electric vehicle and other mandates.”

Environmentalism is something that most fleets are concerned with, and it makes complete sense to aim for sustainable fleet management. However, there are challenges in meeting tight regulatory deadlines, especially where the necessary charging infrastructure for electric vehicles (EVs) isn’t fully in place. Fleets operating in colder climates are also struggling with EV range limitations. A rollback of sustainability mandates would provide fleets with more time and less pressure to adopt EVs at a pace that works for them.

Economic Forecast and Potential Cost Savings

The state of the economy has a significant impact on fleet operating costs, including fuel, maintenance, labor, and even basic operational expenses. Due to increased government spending through factors such as Illegal immigrants and federal assistance to Ukraine and Israel among others, inflation is bound to rise. Newsweek also reported that the FAIR study of March 2024 findings estimated that the Americans spent up to $150.7 billion annually on the effects of illegal immigration in the country which factors included emergency health care and welfare. The Congressional Budget Office reported a $16.2 billion cost to federal and state taxpayers.

On the international front, the U.S. has spent upwards of $174 billion supporting Ukraine and over $22 billion in the Middle East.

What’s Already Happening

As soon as Trump was elected, we saw hints of his focus areas. He’s been vocal about cutting unnecessary government spending, especially through the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency, which aims to save $2 trillion, potentially helping lower inflation. He's also emphasized closing the border and implementing mass deportations, which could create challenges for fleets that rely on undocumented workers.

Trump's stance on war is another area of interest. Being the first president of the USA since Carter who did not begin a new war, his presidency may carry on an anti-war policy into the next year, as it is accompanied by well-known anti-war activists, especially in the case of cabinet choices.

Tariffs and Their Economic Impact

Finally, tariffs, the “T” word, are always a point of contention in economic discussions. While tariffs can cause supply chain disruptions and increase prices for both domestic and imported goods, they can also serve as a strategic tool. Tariffs may push other countries to buy U.S. goods to avoid the extra tax, and they can encourage manufacturing to return to the U.S. or nearby countries, potentially boosting domestic freight volumes and economic growth….. especially if paired with tax cuts for corporations.